In the first part of this delivery, it had been explained that Gbagbo, long time ago back to 2003, when screaming for the Rebels to disarm before presidential ballot could be held, planned for chaos in case he looses the election.
He even declared, 'It is me or chaos." And the events between March 28, 2011 and April 11, 2011 - the sweeping drive of Republican Forces of Ivory Coast (FRCI) from the Northern part of the country, to conquest the Southern part, show that Gbagbo had really plan to establish chaos in the country.
Indeed, the district of Abidjan (4 million people) started spiraling into chaos and mayhem from April 1, 2011 up to the day Gbagbo was captured on April 11, 2011.
Four million people in Abidjan were held hostages by Gbagbo's mercenaries and militiamen, properties destroyed, water and electricity supplies cut. Rampage everywhere. Markets and supermarkets ransacked. Food supplies channels disorganized.
FRCI were obliged to span the district of Abidjan, borough by borough to dislodge Gbagbo's snipers and militiamen. Two strongplaces, the presidential palace and the presidential residence resisted their assaults. They were not equipped to counter the heavy weaponry amassed by Gbagbo to defend these strongholds.
Fortunately for Ivorians, UN resolution 1975, adopted on April 1, 2011 allowed for Unicorn and Onuci to strike back and open way for FRCI to complete the job, dislodge, and capture Gbagbo on April 11, 2011.
Now some observers fear that the country would anyway enter a civil war period. The reasoning being that Gbagbo followers would strike back and create more havoc.
-There will be no civil war in Ivory Coast
The author of this text do not agree. He is of the opinion that there will be no such thing as civil war in Ivory Coast following the end of Gbagbo's regime and the weird circumstances of his downfall.
His conviction is based on the fact that he had lived in Ivory Coast for eight years from 1978 to 1986 and know the local political and social fabrics very well. He had engaged and have had deep discussions with many of the economic and political players still in action. He witnessed the political rise of Gbagbo in the late 1980.
Since then he had scrupulously analyzed the events evolving in the country as testified by the several articles he dedicated to the political crisis.
The eight reasons for which the author of this text believes there will be no such thing as civil war in Ivory Coast after the downfall of Gbagbo, read as follows:
- 1 - The sociologic composition of the population. As here explained, Gbagbo true followers represent more or less ten percent of the Ivorians. Which means that 90 percent of Ivorians are not going to fight for Gbagbo after his downfall.
- 2 - Further, up to 40 percent of Ivory Cost 21 million people are foreigners from other Ecowas countries. These people are not going to take part in any kind of civil war.
- 3 - Ivory Coast is a melting pot of foreigners and "true" Ivorian citizens" living together since the beginning of late century. These people are not prone to destroy their country.
- 4 - Gbagbo's plan was to start the civil war from his stronghold situated in the Center West of the country, the homeland of his tribe, the Bétés, bordering Liberia, from where he hired and imported war criminals and mercenaries, to assist him fulfilling his devilish ambition to stage civil war.
Fortunately, the mercenaries had been swept out by the FRCI during the four day blitzkrieg (March 28 - April 1, 2011) from the North to the South, to liberate Abidjan. And they are not coming back soon, if ever. The FRCI will look after that.
- 5 - The Ivorians, migrants and citizens alike have had a glimpse of what a civil war looks like, with the battle of abidjan, from April 1 to April 11, 2011. The inhabitants of the mega-city were hole up for 10 days without food supplies, water and electricity.
They are peaceful minded people and would not risk that again.
- 6 - One can notice that they are so peaceful minded people that they have not revolted and go on for mass rallies even when civil servants salaries were not paid. They have not received their March 2011 salary. And December 2010, January and February 2011 payrolls sustained 20 percent cuts to pay the mercenaries. That was a "calamity" in a country where one man salary can care for up to 20 people.
In addition, one can say that, was not for the action taken by the FRCI, to use brute force to expel Gbagbo from power, he, Gbagbo, was comfortably encroached in state power for a long time.
- 7 - Parliament elections will be held soon. One can bet that the remaining politicians of Gbagbo's original party, the Popular Front of Ivory Coast, will try to secure a berth in the parliament.
Some would succeed, many would fail to do so. And the big guns of the party would be begging the new power of Ouattara to be removed from the No-Fly list established by the UN, the European Union and the United States of America to punish them for their involvement in the post electoral dispute. They will keep quiet.
- 8 - And the last and most important reason why there will be no civil war is the personality and background of the new elected president. Please listen to the speech he delivered after the capture of Gbagbo.
President Ouattara Speaks After Gbagbo's Capture - Translation Courtesy of BBC
These are words from a proven statesman. One who will not tolerate civil war in his country. A statesman who had been appointed prime minister by Houphouet Boigny in January 1990 - the only prime minister the founding father of modern Ivory Coast ever appointed during his long reign from the late 1960 to 1993. In fact Ouattara was the "de facto" president, deputizing for the ill and old man till his death on December 7, 1993.
Ouattara intellectual background is a huge asset for Ivory Coast. He is a former high rank managing officer of the International Monetary Fund, an experienced financier, with a huge contacts's list of friends and professionals in high places. He will attract money and finance to Ivory Coast to boost the developing. He has a development plan ready for that, which he unveiled during the presidential ballot's campaign.
He has a strategic thinking mind and proved it during the four months of disputes that followed the struggle for the power with Gbagbo.
He astutely managed to deprive Gbagbo from diplomatic and media support. He created a state television by satellite - overnight, to counter Gbagbo propaganda's broadcasts by the state television controlled by Gbagbo.
And most important he deprived Gbagbo from financial means, locally and internationally, blocking his access to Ivory Coast's funds opened within the accounts of the Bceao/Reserve Bank. He asked for the blockade of Ivorian harbors by the European operators, and temporarily put a stop to the export of cocoa beans, the cash crop of the country - to impede Gbagbo garnering export tax and fees.
The image at the left side of this paragraph shows president Ouattara posing on April 12, 2011 with the military high rank officers -former supporters of Gbagbo, who have already rallied behind him one day after the fall of the former president.
That event is another proof that there will be no civil war in Ivory Coast following the downfall of Gbagbo. For sure, these military men are not all sincere in their move but they do know who is now the boss of the country. They will keep quiet.
Based on the above discussion, one can see there will be no civil war in Ivory Coast following Gbagbo's downfall. Some skirmishes may occur for three to four months, in the center west region in particular, and will settle down. These will not lead to a global civil war.
About the author:Dr. Bienvenu-Magloire Quenum is the principal/ managing director of Dr. Quenum & Associates, IBC. He is an experienced Investment & Business Planner with 25 years consulting practice in African countries. He is the editor in chief of Africabiz Online
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