| Posted on April 15, 2011 - by Dr. Bienvenu-Magloire Quenum - Editor in Chief of Africabiz Online editor@africabiz.org
Before reviewing current delivery, please click following link that exposes financial scandals that marred Yayi Boni first term in office, from April 6, 2006 to April 5, 2011, and shows he failed to deliver
Facts reported on above linked-page, the failure to turn around the economy as promised during his 2006 electoral rallies, the level of corruption never seen before in the history of Benin that marred his first term in office, are the main reasons his approval rating was in steep decline amongst the populations few months before the date of the ballot.
The backing of first time followers and supporters king makers of 2006 presidential ballot had already vanished, disillusioned by the chaotic governance practices reported on above linked-page.
Thus, it was not possible that Yayi Boni could have collected, for the first leg of March 13, 2011 presidential ballot, votes numbers beyond the 32 percent gained in the first leg of 2006 presidential ballot. This assertion is further demonstrated in following paragraphs.
However, the decline of the economy and exposed financial scandals on above linked-page are not the only reasons why most Benineses were upset that Yayi Boni had been declared the winner of March 13, 2011 presidential ballot, without the run of a second leg.
The strange (weird) way the election had been prepared, organized and finalized also cast doubts on the fairness and transparency of Yayi Boni reelection for a second term.
- Strange Organization of the Presidential Ballot of March 13, 2011 in Benin
A strange, indeed, ballot took place in Benin on March 13, 2011. Below listed are some peculiarities that characterized the electoral process. Judge by yourself.
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Have you ever heard of an electoral ballot for which the complete listing
of voters had never been released to the political parties? This
happened for the electoral presidential ballot of March 13, 2011
in Benin.
2- Have you ever heard of a ballot for which thousand of registered people have the registration receipt but never have been assigned to a voting station? This happened for the electoral presidential ballot of March 13, 2011 in Benin.
3- Have you ever heard of a ballot for which one third of the population (1,200,000 people) entitled to cast votes have not been registered? This happened for the electoral presidential ballot of March 13, 2011 in Benin. These discarded people representing opposition parties constituencies.
4- Have you ever heard of a ballot for which the listing of voting stations where not known by the contenders the day the ballot took place? This happened for the electoral presidential ballot of March 13, 2011 in Benin.
5- Have you ever heard of a ballot session for which several thousands listed voters do not know the polling station in which they have to cast votes? This happened for the electoral presidential ballot of March 13, 2011 in Benin
6- And when, mostly in rural areas, voters do know about their polling booth's location, it was located 10 to 15 kilometers from their residence. For sure, they were not going to go to cast their vote. It had been noticed that this particular oddity was common in constituencies favorable to the opposition parties.
7- Have you ever heard of a ballot session for which polling booths were fictional? Strange to you? This happened for the electoral presidential ballot of March 13, 2011 in Benin. Which explained why some polling boxes with collated voting reports were delivered to the Independent Electoral Commission - Cena, without padlock. Have they been stuffed with Yayi Boni's voting bulletins to save the day for Yayi Boni? Several thousands Benineses believe so.
8- Some polling stations do not even have voting bulletins in sufficient quantities to satisfy the number of listed voters. This was the trick to diminish the percentage of voters favorable to the opposition.
9- And most weird, it was possible for the chosen ones to vote, by
exemption, in any voting station they choose to do so. That was the
good one, that opened way for multiple votes cast by the same single
person in favor of Yayi Boni of course.
10- And what about the several thousand women who received XOF/CFA5,000 bank notes on the spot, the day of voting, to choose the right voting bulletins. Etc.
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Above listing is not a joke. These oddities truly led to the election of Yayi Boni during the presidential ballot of March 13, 2011, which cast doubts on the "fair and transparent," certification delivered by international observers. Were they blind? Or accomplice to the manipulation?
Strangely, such weird peculiarities above listed were publicly known at least six months in advance before the date of the election was fixed, denounced by the opposition parties that rallied to protest the way the voters's ledger was being computerized. Scroll down for more about that matter
This protestation was the background of a tense political and social atmosphere that existed for the six months running to the election. And which currently still persist after the Constitutional Court proclaimed Yayi Boni the winner for a second term (2011-2016) - without running for a second leg.
Some people reading this may ask why the vote took place anyway, in a peaceful atmosphere, if all this is true, to granting credibility to the process, making it simple for international observers to stamp the results as fair and transparent.
The answer reads as follow: Owing to the low popularity rating of Yayi Boni, resulting from the fact that people were utterly disillusioned by his governance during 2006-2011 period as exposed in the first part of this article, opposition parties's leaders believed that he will lose anyway, in spite of the fraud system put in place.
Facts proved them wrong. Yayi Boni strategists who cooked the weird organization above briefly exposed were true "professionals" in votes manipulation. They outplayed the opposition. They knew well what they were doing and searching for, that is to fully control the voting organization to favor the election of Yayi Boni.
Above listed oddities are not the only ones that cast doubts on the ballot transparency. Some big would-be candidates had been "astutely" impeded to participate in the contest.
Such is the case, of the candidate designated by the Communist Party of Benin - PCB. His candidacy had been rejected by the Constitutional Court on the basis that he had not paid in time the candidacy participation fee amounting to XOF/CFA15,000,000. Click here for a conversion tool.
A false pretext, as he had done so in time, as shown by the date-stamped
on the receipt he received after payment to the institutional body in charge,
and displayed to the audience during a press conference held on February
11, 2011. The author of this text have in archive a xerox-scanned copy
of the receipt.
In fact, the participation of PCB designated candidate - backed also by
a green-ecology party, had been a surprise for everyone in Benin. Indeed,
the Communist Party of Benin had never before listed for a presidential
ballot in spite of having, since 50 years established structures all over
the provinces of the country. PCB is a very efficient militant party well
introduced in rural areas, that also has the backing of a strong and very
active trade union organization.
PCB decided to enter the fray this time in view of the fact that Yayi Boni had deceived so many people who want to get rid of him as exposed in the first part of this article
It is good noticing that several thousands people contributed to amass PCB candidate's participation fee. That shows the determination of the population to stop Yayi Boni winning a second term. Never before had people contributed so broadly to amass a candidate's participation fee.
The people behind the ballot organization and the Constitutional Court in particular clearly saw the participation of PCB's candidate as a potential threat to their scheme to control the votes, to favoring the election of Yayi Boni without the run a second leg.
- The Computerization of the Voting Ledger Listing - LEPI
This is not the first time presidential elections are organized in Benin. Five such events occurred from 1991 to 2006 under the multi-party democratic system established by the 1990 Constitution, and went peacefully without such organizational oddities above exposed. And all these elections required a second leg to select the winner, because contestants have always numbered up to 25 candidates.
From 1991 to 2006, voters's roll listings were manually compounded. This was also a pathway to frauds, but never at the scale experienced for March 13, 2011 ballot. It is good noticing that previous ballots held with manually compounded voters's listings have never raised recriminations, and provoke such amount of social stress in the population - as did the Computerized Voters Listing - LEPI used for March 13, 2011 ballot.
Several mediations sessions have been organized by religious leaders, Non Governmental Organizations, civil rights and fair electoral watching groups, to cool down the tense political and social atmosphere building up towards the election date. Even a committee of three retired former presidents had done their part to reconcile the opposition parties and Yayi Boni's ruling party - The Cowries Forces. The odds were that the election would turn to wild violence. This did not happened as above explained.
The contestation, protestations and disputes were about the way the new computerized voters listing - LEPI, was being setup, opening way to vote rigging - in the opinion of the opposition parties, but not for the ruling party of Yayi Boni - Cowries Forces.
- The Proclamation of the Results by the Independent Electoral Commission - CENA
Now, about the proclamation of the results. Five days after the ballot was closed, Cena was not in the position to give a voting trend. This was due to the fact that the exact number of voters was either not known as above exposed in point 1, or because those who engineered the electoral coup were waiting to see how to fiddle with the votes to favor the election of Yayi Boni.
It had also been exposed above in point 7 that some voting boxes arrived in the Cena's offices without padlocks. This triggered protest from opposition's representatives within the institution, who refused that the content of said non-padlocked voting boxes being taken into account to compounding the ballot results.
Nevertheless, the Independent Electoral Commission's president bypassed that request from opposition representatives and proclaimed on March 28, 2011 Yayi Boni the winner with 53.14 percent of cast vote - 35.64 percent for Adrien Houngbedji, and 6.4 for Abdoulaye Bio-Tchané. Results confirmed on March 31, 2011 by the Constitutional Court, that rejected legal contests introduced by two of the main opposition candidates - Adrien Houngbedji and Abdoulaye Bio-Tchané.
- Fors-Elections, a Local NGO Released Different Figures of the Ballot's Results
The Front of Civil Society Organizations for the Implementation of Fair and Transparent Elections in African Countries - fors-elections.org, a local NGO, had done a good supervision job about the preparation and organization of the presidential ballot, in addition to closely watching the setup of the Computerized Voters's Listing - Lepi.
The NGO had several time held public conferences and posted reports on his website, to raise concern about the many dysfunctions arising with the setup of the computerized voters listing - Lepi, that would lead to the oddities above listed.
Further, to give another facet of the reality, fors-elections/NGO setup an Alternative Citizens Independent Electoral Commission" - Ceca, to control actions undertaken, decisions made and information released by the official Independent Electoral Commission - Cena.
The day of the election on March 13, 2011, fors-elections/ceca deployed independent observers on the spot, who visited any single "official" existing polling stations. That initiative permits the collation of voters numbers in each voting station.
In the post electoral report released, fors-elections/ceca confirmed the oddities above outlined, and made the following observations that can be verified on their website (French language only.)
1 - Six thousand "official" polling stations had been setup all over the territory.
2 - Based on compilations made by fors-elections/Ceca's observers, the number of cast votes is 2 million instead of 2,8 million, as stated by the Constitutional Court, on March 28, 2011.
3 - Taking above figure into account the gap between Yayi Boni and Adrien Houngbedji is 7 points - and not not 19 points as reported by the official Independent Electoral Commission - Cena, on March 26, 2011 - and confirmed by by the Constitutional Court, on March 31, 2011.
4 - Which means that Yayi Boni gain stands at 49 percent of cast votes and Houngbedji one at 42 percent.
5 - Therefore a second leg was necessary. Yayi Boni had not won the ballot, needing only the first leg to do so.
6 - Here it is good noticing that the 49 percent credited to Yayi Boni by fors-elections/NGO, have been garnered thanks to massive frauds votes rigging linked to the several oddities that marred the ballots' procedure and process as here exposed.
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Further, during year 2006 presidential ballot, Yayi Boni score for the first leg was 36 percent of the cast votes, against 25 percent for Houngbedji.
It had been demonstrated in this delivery that Yayi Boni had not fulfilled promises he made during the 2006-ballot campaign, to turn around the economy, to bring about a better life for the population, and to stamp out corruption. This had not happened. In the contrary poverty level increased 10 points. He had not only failed to deliver, but had also been in the center, he himself and close members of his government and advisers, of financial scandals never seen before in the history of Benin.
Based on the above, the rating approval of Yayi Boni was in downward spiral. So, it was obvious that he was going to have a hard time to be reelected. Hence the suspicion of the population when the Independent Electoral Commission - Cena, released his victory figures, confirmed by the Constitutional Court on March 31, 2010.
Benineses who are acute politics-minded people are wondering, "How come Yayi Boni has increased his gain of 2006 first leg presidential ballot (36 percent of cast votes in the first leg) to 53 percent for the first leg of 2011 presidential ballot, when he was so unpopular? The majority of Benineses are suspicious and convinced the ballot's results had been cooked to favoring the "triumphal" reelection of Yayi Boni - without the run of a second leg.
- The Election of Yayi Boni for a Second Term is an Electoral Coup
Dear reader, after all above discussed, and related linked-pages outlined in this paper, would you not also agree, as a sober observer would do, together with the majority of Benineses, that the reelection of Yayi Boni sounds like a well planned and executed electoral coup? Wouldn't you?
In the opinion of the author of this text there is no doubt. He is convinced Yayi Boni reelection for a second term in office is, a well planned and executed electoral coup.
The main people who masterminded the exploit are (1) The head of the structure in charge of the computerization of voters's listing - Lepi, for reason known to himself only; (2) the president of the "official" Independent Electoral Commission - Cena, for reason, we do not know yet; (3) the president of the Constitutional Court, who for his part has score to settle with one of the big guns of the Union Makes the Nation - UN, the main opposition party that backed Houngbedji's quest for the presidential job.
Indeed, most Benineses were astonished - and still are, that almost all the decisions taken by the president of the Constitutional Court, during the two years leading to the electoral ballot of March 13, 2011, were unilaterally in favor of Yayi Boni's camp. This was systematically done to becoming an embarrassment as his two women predecessors have always been fair, balancing their decisions between the power of the day and the opposition parties.
The man, the president of the Institutional Court, has as above already stated, an account to settle.
Indeed, one of the big gun of the Union Makes the Nation (UN), a former president of Benin appointed in 1993 the current Constitutional Court's president as his Foreign Minister. For reasons known only to both of them, he abruptly sacked him in 1995 when he was on mission abroad. A supreme humiliation. The president of the Constitutional Court waited all those years since then for a revenge.
To understand the "vendetta" of the president of the Constitutional Court, it is good noticing that the Union Makes the Nation (UN) positioned a son of the former president in question, to becoming the UN's candidate for the presidential ballot of 2016 - in case Houngbedji secured the job in 2011.
- The Quest for International Diplomatic Recognition by Yayi Boni
On the day of the election, after casting his vote, Yayi Boni, declared to the media, just after leaving the poling station, "I beg your pardon for the dysfunctions that marred the ballot. We will try to do better next time." Amazing isn't?
The man is acknowledging that dysfunctions had marred the electoral procedure
and process, when during the many several mediation-meetings held to cool
down palpable tension during the march to the election day, his party -
the Cowries Forces - refused to admit that such dysfunctions exist.
Mathieu Kerekou, the former president, for his part, declared after casting his vote, "Is This really a ballot?" - meaning is this really a fair ballot? At least that is what the author of this text is guessing. Anyway, he was doubtless baffled by the way the voting was organized and executed.
Yayi Boni knows that Benineses are not duped by what had happened. He knows that the majority of Benineses are astonished by the way things had been done. He knows that they know that his election is an electoral coup in disguise. He knows they are watching for what would be coming next.
Yayi Boni knows that the impression now prevailing in the country is that the democratic gains resulting from February 1990 National Conference which led to the drafting of June 1990 Constitution, the establishment of executive power buffer-institutions, the Supreme Court, the Supervising Body of the Media, democratic rules, free press, and the multi-party system are now in jeopardy.
Not only Yayi Boni had tried during his first term to control all above listed institutions, not leaving room for their heads and managers to rule and decide, but now he has rigged the presidential vote. Benineses are utterly worried. And Yayi Boni knows that.
Knowing all above said Yayi Boni is doing whatever is possible to rally the maximum of international diplomatic support, to counterbalance his unpopularity in the country. These international supports are trumpeted on the national TV to show the population how popular he is abroad. The last support triumphantly reported on April 14, 2011 comes from the United States Congress. A premiere in Benin!
This quest for international diplomatic support had been initiated even before the final proclamation of the ballot results.
Indeed, His Excellency Jonathan Goodluck, the president of Nigeria, visited his friend Yayi Boni at Cotonou/ Benin, on March 18, 2011 and declared the following:
"I congratulate the people of Benin for the presidential election held without violence and would like to invite candidates and voters to accept the election results, and avoid violence and war. Nigeria will not accept violence or war at its doorstep..We have a lengthy common border."
The chief campaigner of Yayi Boni, Mr. Marcel de Souza, asked the opposition
parties to take good notice of Jonathan Good Luck declaration. A blunder that
irked the Benineses who are not keen to take lessons of democracy from the
neighbor of the East. Interesting though, this man de Souza may be chosen by
Yayi Boni as the next prime minister. If this comes true, he, Mr. Marcel de
Souza, has already carved a slippery political road for himself.
So, that is the situation now in Benin. The majority of Benineses are convinced they have been robbed by a group of people, who organized an electoral coup to keep Dr. Yayi Boni in power, and are maneuvering to keep them quiet, to accepting the electoral coup.
It is obvious, with regards the Ivory Coast situation [1, 2, 3, 4] that Yayi Boni's followers who masterminded the electoral coup are trying to mimic the strategy used by Ivory Coast's Ouattara to cut Gbagbo from international support.
They, however, are in plain denial. Ouattara was the true winner of the election and Gbagbo the thief. Here in Benin, none of the candidates, not declared winner by the Constitutional Court, has tried to form a rival government to challenging the "election" of Yayi Boni as done by Gbagbo in Ivory Coast. True, Adrien Houngbedji first reaction was to do so. However, he had not persisted.
Yayi Boni is the declared "winner" recognized by the international communality. However, inside the country, his victory is suspicious to the majority of the people of Benin, as demonstrated in this paper.
So, the support that matters, is the backing of the people of Benin. Yayi Boni can have all the international support he can manage to have. As long as he does not have the adhesion of the majority of the people of Benin, he is in for deep troubles in the near future.
Follow me to the
next link, here available to review why in the opinion of Africabiz Online,
Yayi Boni would have a very bumpy and risky road during his second term in
power, to reaching the final deadline of his second term mandate - that
is April 5, 2016.
About the author: Dr. Bienvenu-Magloire Quenum is the principal/ managing director of Dr. Quenum & Associates, IBC. He is an experienced Investment & Business Planner with 25 years consulting practice in African countries. He is the editor in chief of Africabiz Online
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