| Posted on April 15, 2011 - by Dr. Bienvenu-Magloire Quenum - Editor in Chief of Africabiz Online editor@africabiz.org
To have a good understanding of current delivery, readers are advised to visit the first issue of this series dedicated to the fact that Benin's president failed to turn around the economy during his first term in charge - from 2006 to April 5, 2011.
Not only had he failed to deliver promises made to improve the life of his
fellows citizens, but corruption was rampant during his first term in
office.
In spite of that blatant failure exposed on above linked-page, that has dragged his popularity rating to ground level, Yayi Boni managed to secure a second term during the presidential ballot of March 13, 2011.
The second article of this series exposed the oddities that marred the organization and implementation of said ballot, to concluding that the reelection of Yayi Boni for a second term is an Electoral Coup in Disguise
The last issue of the series, the one you are reviewing now, explores about
the possible consequences of the Electoral Coup, in relation with the sociological,
religious, and political activism background of the Republic of Benin.
- Benin/Dahomey is a Peculiar Country
The Republic of Benin is a small country - as far as territorial size and economic performances are taken into account. But it is, however, a peculiar country. His other well known name is Dahomey - till the change of name made on November 30, 1975.
- 1 - Benin/Dahomey is a land of mysticism
First of all Benin/Dahomey is the motherland of Voodoo -
a traditional local religion that expanded to the Americas, to the Nordeste
of Brazil in particular under the name of Cadomble,
into Haiti, Cuba, the United States of America - particularly into the states
of Louisiana, Georgia and Mississippi. It is a vivid African heritage of
African-Americans.
Who has not once in his life heard about Voodoo? The word (also written woodoo, vaudou or vodun) is even now used as trade mark for computer's parts (voodoo graphics card) - and also for business logo and motto. Look around and you shall see! (This photos and text book, Vaudou, by Henning Christoph and Hans Oberländer, Tachen Editions, 1996, ISBN: 3-8228-8748-X is a good introduction to the matter.)
By the way, if you can afford watching the "weird" movie, the Devil's Advocate - starring Keanu Reeves and Al Pacino, there is an extraordinary scene about a voodoo practitioner whose mission was to silence a prosecutor during a trial carried against him by the City of New York - for defaulting Health Law - by slaughtering (sacrifice) a sheep in his den's basement.
During the trial, the prosecutor had a violent cough bite that goes and on and on. He cannot utter a single word for a long spell of time to make argument against the voodoo priest who finally, against the odds, won the case.
Above anecdote is here related because on the frontispiece of the voodoo-man's den, in the borough-district of Harlem, is written, Dahomey - the well known name of the Republic of Benin.
The reason voodoo is put in perspective in this paper would appear clearly to the reader in following discussions.
- 2 - Benin/Dahomey has a turbulent political history
Now let us consider the second peculiarity of Dahomey/Benin. Benin has always been a politically turbulent country, since the colonial time under French rule, starting from the conquest of the country in 1898, till the independence in 1960, and after.
The colonial power had have it difficult to run the country. Colonial governors rotation rate was the highest compared to other French West Africa's and Central Africa's colonies. One year to two, was the maximum period in average from the beginning of the century till 1958. Click here for the listing of colonial governors.
Dahomean/Beninese western educated people used to write documented reports to denounce the governors actions to the Department/Ministry of Colonies in Paris. Not to forget voodoo practices to make their life a misery. The Governor's representatives in the provinces were also submitted to the same handling.
The author of this text had personally had the opportunity to review specimen of such messages sent by the colonial power provincial representatives to the ruling governor, to report about voodoo practices they have observed and are personally confronted with.
The only colonial Governor who managed to stay in charge for eleven years, 1917-1928, was Mr. Gaston Fourn. He survived because he married into the royal family of Abomey, the capital city of the Kingdom of Dahomey. Therefore, he was put under the protection of the king - the master of the voodoo cult.
In spite of said protection, it has not been an easy ride for governor Gaston
Fourn. To challenge the Dahomeans who want to get rid of him, he used to
say, "One cannot move a water well" (Dotô Ma Sêtin
- in the most spoken national language - Fon.) Statement to which the challengers
used to reply to, stating the following, "One can fill out and close
a water well."
All above discussion show you that Dahomey/Benin is not an easy country to rule.
The political agitation during the colonial era reaches a climax in the early 1930s, that is just 40 years after the colonial conquest. And towards the end of the 1930s, Dahomeans were already claiming for independence.
The colonial power then adopted an emigration policy to send western educated Dahomeans to other French colonial territories, to become servants/assistants to the colonial power. The author of this text had had the opportunity to review reports in which that policy was clearly spelled out, with instructions not to develop the economy of the country. That way, the intellectual blood of Benin/Dahomey had been diverted abroad, and the economy left to languish.
Above described
policy, set up by the colonial power to squashing the "independent mind"
of Dahomeans/ Benineses will have an important impact on the future of the
country as below further discussed.
- 2 - Six Military Coups in Dahomey/Benin From 1963 to 1972
Now come in the 1960s that saw "independence" granted by the colonial power
to his African territories. The majority
of Dahomeans/Benineses who emigrated were forced back to the homeland to
becoming civil servants to the new "independent" power.
That sudden influx of workers inflated the payroll. The government was not
in the position to cope with the financial burden, and obliged to request
for budget financial assistance from the colonial power - that was granted
on a monthly basis.
Do not forget, the country was poor, without a solid economy. Only palm-oil was then the cash crop. No other agricultural produces for export have been developed. The economy was non existent, only trading was thriving with the giant of the East, Nigeria.
No wonder, the new "independent" government was confronted
"non-stop" to strikes and intrigues from hostile and intransigent trade-unions,
and antagonistic political parties. There were to many people who want to
be kings.
Then the first coup happened in 1963, three years after the proclamation of the independence - the job of General Christophe Soglo. The last one, in October 26, 1972, was engineered by Captain Assogba, who, for reason known to himself alone, handed the power to commandant Kerekou 24 hours after seizing the supreme power.
Please take note that Captain Assogba's coup was to protest against the three-horse team - three presidents for the country - that rule one year each, May 7, 1970 to October 26, 1972. That was the so-called presidential Council.
Kerekou, managed to keep the power, ruling with a state-party, the Party of the People Republic of Benin - PRPB, from October 1972 to February 1990. However, it had not been an easy ride. He also had been challenged several times, and even had to fight an invasion (1979) of Dahomeans living abroad.
Kerekou survived and declared one day, "Benin is a small country, but his weight is heavy." Meaning this is a country that is not easy to rule. He also declared to another head of state of a neighboring country, "You are having it easy to rule your country [...] In the contrary my countrymen are wolves."
By the way, it is good noticing here that Dr. Yayi Boni, the current president of Benin, who had been reelected for a second term, after a controversial ballot, had lived for more than 10 years in the country of the statesman to whom Kerekou has made the above mentioned declaration.
Yayi Boni declared several times that the statesman in question and the
likes of Tunisia's Ben Ali were his models of head of States, which cast
a glaring light on the oddities that marred the presidential ballot of March
13, 2011 in Benin as
here reported. Obviously, he had learned his lessons from well known
African dictators!
Above outlined declarations by Kerekou are from an expert ruler who knows
what he is talking about. However, at the end, Kerekou also was toppled,
his "revolutionary" marxist regime, based on a state-party, the
PRPB, had been confronted starting from 1987 to a severe downturn of the
economy. Civil servants salaries were no more paid in time, payroll being
up to 12 months overdue. Students staging rallying protests quite once a
week.
The political atmosphere progressively deteriorated from 1987 to 1989, civil disobedience, strikes and strikes followed every week. At the beginning of 1989, the country was at standstill. Kerekou's PRPB had lost hands managing the country, and he himself was at lost not knowing what to do.
In December 1989, PRPB renounced the Marxism ideology. That move had
no impact on the determination of the people of Benin to topple the regime.
They increased pressure on the power. People want to get rid of Kerekou's
iron fist rule and his inefficient ruling party. They want free press,
a multi-party system and the development of the economy, to increase the
purchasing power for all.
To cool down the political atmosphere Kerekou was forced to organize, in
February 1990, the historical National
Conference, that became a model all over Africa.
During the conference, new democratic rules were enacted, a transitory prime minister and a new government setup for 12 months. Kerekou retained his position as head of state but his party - PRPB, was disbanded. Finally, Kerekou lost the presidential ballot of March 21, 1991 against Nicephore Soglo.
However, Kerekou made a comeback five years later. He run against Nicephore Soglo to winning the presidential ballot of March 28, 1996. He was reelected again against Nicephore Soglo, for a second term, on March 22, 2001.
So, since February 1990 National Conference, and the enacting of December 1990 Constitution which established a presidential regime, a multi-party system, provided for a string of executive power buffering structures (the Supreme Court, the Institutional Court, the Supreme Media Authority, the High Court of Justice, and the Independent Electoral Commission. Etc.,) Benin, New Democratic Era, was recognized worldwide as a model of democracy in Africa.
Since 1991, till the arrival of Dr. Yayi Boni to power in 2006, elections had been held in peaceful atmosphere with manually compounded voters's listing. And president Kerekou has scrupulously respected the rule and decisions of the several executive power-buffering structures established by February 1990 National Conference, and December 1990 Constitution.
In the contrary, as soon as he became president, Yayi Boni started maneuvering to control all these power buffering institutions.
He used to the limit constitutional presidential prerogatives, to block
and control the operation of these structures. In brief, Yayi Boni endeavor
to control all the institutions of the republic to make sure that he is the
supreme power in the country. He particularly set target on the Independent
Electoral Commission and the Constitutional Court.
As a consequence, Yayi Boni and his strategists were in the position to manipulate
the electoral process in convenience as it suits them. They cooked a controversial computerized
voters's listing - Lepi, that makes it easy to control
the voting system, to successfully engineering an Electoral
Coup as here exposed.
The above lengthy narration about the history of politics battles in Benin, and the highlight about voodoo religion's influence was necessary to develop the following argument about the consequences of the Electoral Coup perpetrated by Yayi Boni, during the electoral process of March 13, 2011, to securing a second term in power.
-
Now, What Is Next in Benin After the Weird Presidential
Ballot of March 13, 2011?
The above paragraphs give readers a clear view and knowledge about the peculiarities
that characterize Benin political practices since the beginning of late
century. In short, people of Benin are politics-acute minded, they live in
a mystic atmosphere of voodoo, they are on alert - and do not like to be
taken for idiots.
So, the sleight of hand performed by Dr. Thomas Yayi Boni, the electoral coup masterminded by his strategists, would not pass by without being challenged by the people of Benin. Sooner or later. More sooner than Yayi Boni believes. He gambled and is believing that he would do better than any other ruler that preceded him to control the country. He has just opened the can of worms. Does he really have a good knowledge about the sociological background of the country? The author of this text doubts it.
Indeed, December 1990 constitution's Article 66 stipulates the following in French:
En cas de coup d' Etat, de putsch, d'agression par des mercenaires ou de coup de force quelconque, tout membre d'un organe constitutionnel a le droit et le devoir de faire appel à tous les moyens pour rétablir la légitimité constitutionnelle, y compris le recours de coopération militaire ou de défense existants. Dans ces circonstances, pour tout béninois, désobéir et s'organiser pour faire échec à l'autorité illégitime constituent le plus sacré des droits et le plus impératifs des devoirs.
Translated in English (by the author of this text), it reads as follow:
In case of a Coup, putsch, mercenaries aggression or any kind of coup, any member of a constitutional organizational structure has the right and the duty to gather all kinds of means to reinstate the constitutional legitimacy, including the recourse to any kind of military cooperation and existing defense agreement in force and existing. Under such circumstances, exercising disobedience, taking action to stop the illegitimate power is the most sacred right and the most imperative duty to be undertaken by any single Beninese citizen. | As demonstrated in the issue here available, the reelection of Yayi Boni for a second term had been achieved under electoral procedure and process that opened way to massive votes rigging. Most of Benin's people perceive the reelection of Yayi Boni as an electoral coup.
Therefore, one can bet that 1990 Constitution's Article 66 above outlined would be respected. Of course, the resource to "military cooperation and existing defense agreement (with another country)" cannot be used as Yayi Boni is recognized by the international community as the legitimate elected president.
However, considering all above discussed, one can imagine that groups of Benineses, and individuals alike are actively preparing to comply to Article 66 stipulations, to make life difficult for Yayi Boni to rule the country - including violent rallies, and hidden underground voodoo practices aiming at toppling the regime before April 5, 2016 - the normal official deadline of Yayi Boni's second term in office.
The author of this text can therefore assert that Benin is in for political and social troubles for the coming years. Would it be one, two, three, four or five years of troubles, strikes, disobedience or whatever else, we shall know soon.
-Three Possible Non-comprehensive Troubles's Scenarios
Troubles that started already with strikes sponsored particularly by the Communist of Benin - PCB, and newspapers articles denouncing the electoral coup, would gather speed after the legislative election scheduled to be held on April 30, 2011.
The legislative ballot to designate the eighty-three members of the parliament would be implemented under the same controversial procedure and process used for the presidential ballot of March 13, 2011 - here exposed, that opened way to massive frauds in favor of Yayi Boni.
Below outlined are three non-comprehensive troubles's scenario related with the final result of the legislative ballot of April 30, 2011.
a) Yayi Boni followers win the ballot and have the majority of seats in the parliament
This means that massive frauds have occurred again. Troubles, strikes, disobedience actions would start right away, and take the turn of civil unrest, riots bordering popular revolts and uprisings.
The way Yayi Boni's repressive troops react would give the tempo. In case a single person is shot dead during protest-rallies, Yayi Boni days in power would be numbered in weeks.
b) Yayi Boni followers do not have the majority in the new parliament. Therefore, the opposition would start the battle against the power, blocking legislative bills, national budget's approvals going through up-hill votes's battles, article by article, a time consuming process ; the postponing of the approval of international agreements signed by the government. Etc.
That would the a soft, nevertheless bloody legislative guerilla, that was already the case during the last two years of the departing parliament, 2002-2006.
c) Whatever happened for the results of the legislative ballot, Yayi Boni's troops packing the parliament or not, the trade unions would increase pressure on Yayi Boni. And the students, 60,000 young people who know the economic future is blocked may also enter the fray.
|
So one way or another,
troubles are ahead for Yayi Boni in the coming one, two, three, four or five
years. Can Yayi manage to reaching the deadline of the second term?
That is April 5, 2016? Interesting question.
The only way out for Yayi Boni's power would be to quickly turn around the economy. This should be done during the coming 18 months - maximum. People should sense very quickly that things are now moving in the right direction, to release the pressure on the government.
The author of this text have strong doubt that the regime could perform better
than what it did during the first term in power as
here reported. Why? Because till today, the regime has not designed an
efficient development strategy to boost the economy. Nothing had been done
in that direction, and there is no sign that it is planning for it. The regime
has day to day managed the economy, not seeing beyond the daily skyline.
To say the least.
Now, strategists are advising the president to appoint a prime minister, to assist in better governance. The 1990 Constitution does not provide for a prime minister. It does not, however, explicitly bar such occurrence. If this comes true, would the president gives room to the prime minister to act and rule freely? Maybe, maybe not. Here in Africabiz Online, we still have doubts that Yayi Boni would give room to an eventual prime minister to act and rule, because he has a natural propensity to micro-manage and not to delegate power.
Now Yayi Boni is doing whatever possible to have a strong international diplomatic support. Said support would not save him when things really turn sour in the country, within a span time of one year maximum. What he needs is the support and backing of the majority of Benin's people - who are already deceived and on alert.
The regime is currently actively trying to squash free press and harass journalists. That is a wrong move. The trend has been set just after the release of the temporally results of the presidential ballot by the Independent Electoral Commission - CEI.
For instance, a popular politics talk-show on Radio France International, to discuss the procedure and process of the elections that led to massive frauds in favor of the election of Yayi Boni for a second term, had been jammed.
To try to clamp down on the press is rolling back years towards the period before the National Conference. It won't work, and would backfire. Benin's people would not let that happen. Now they are on alert.
Our conclusion: Troubles ahead in Benin. Big troubles that could lead to global insurrection. We may be wrong and hope to be. But based on all above discussed the odds are for big troubles in Benin in the near future.
However, we are not going to witness anything in the like of what happened in Ivory Coast. Heavy gun fights would not occur on the streets of Benin's cities. Big skirmishes, trade-unions's strikes, political intrigues, false alliances to spy on the other party, political sabotage, transhumance between parties and so on - yes. But nothing like the Ivorian scenario would happen in Benin/Dahomey.
Unfortunately, whatever is the scenario, that would be in the detriment of the developing of the economy.
About the author: Dr. Bienvenu-Magloire Quenum is the principal/ managing director of Dr. Quenum & Associates, IBC. He is an experienced Investment & Business Planner with 25 years consulting practice in African countries. He is the editor in chief of Africabiz Online
|
.
-
